Fantasy Football: Week 3 Mismatch Manifesto and Top Blow-Up Picks | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Predictions

  • Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins need to cope Angry passes by the Lions To bounce back in a big way in Week 2.
  • The Bills won the league title the second highest pressure rating easily though less blitzing more than any defense in the league.
  • Early post-town returns Jaguars attack thanks to that it was good high-priced free agent addition Christian Kirk.
Estimated reading time: 22 minutes

The NFL is a league based on consistency. Offensive coordinators are always looking to get their playmakers one-on-one against the quarterback, while defensive coordinators will try their best to disrupt the opposing QB’s timing and rhythm.

Despite the obvious impact that defenses have on opposing offenses, fantasy players and fans alike often have one-sided metrics to describe offenses and defenses, and then are forced to compare them against each other to determine mismatches.

The goal here is to provide easy-to-decipher charts and notes to identify each week’s key matchups and advantages on both sides of the ball:

  • Explosive games
  • Temp
  • Pressure
  • Yards before contact
  • EPA

The tables below show matchup-specific information to highlight the biggest mismatches in these ever-important aspects of football for effective betting and fantasy offers as a result. And of course to have fun.

Note: Information refers to weeks 1-2 of 2022. There are obviously many limitations to this due to the small sample size at hand; the main inconsistencies will be highlighted in the following paragraphs and the indicators will strengthen as the season progresses.

Click here to sign up and try PFF+ for free!

Explosive games

Big games make the football world go round. Matchups between explosive offenses and leaky defenses are exactly what we’re looking for when drafting our DFS stacks or betting already.

  • Explosive transition rate: The sum of the offense’s completion rate of 20-plus yards per pass attempt and the opposing defense’s completion rate of 20-plus yards allowed per pass attempt. For crimes, a higher percentage is better (blue is good, red is bad).
  • Explosive Run Rate: The sum of the offense’s rate of gaining 15-plus yards per rushing attempt and the opposing defense’s rushing rate of 15-plus yards allowed per rushing attempt. For crimes, a higher percentage is better (blue is good, red is bad).

These crimes lead to explosive games: Five offenses average at least 10.5% of explosive passes: Broncos (11.3%), Titans (11.1%), Packers (11.1%), Raiders (10.7%) and Lions ( 10.5%).

“Why should you be king when you can be the Sun God?” – Amon-Ra Holy Brown

When to live:

  • Week 13, 2021: 10 receptions-86 yards-1 TD (12 targets, PPR WR6)
  • 14 weeks, 2021: 8-73-0 (12, WR26)
  • Week 15, 2021: 8-90-1 (11, WR6)
  • Week 16, 2021: 9-91-1 (11, WR6)
  • Week 17, 2021: 8-111-1 (11, WR2)
  • 18 weeks, 2021: 8-109-1 (10, WR9)
  • 1 week, 2022: 8-64-1 (12, WR12)
  • Week 2, 2022: 9-116-2 (12, WR4)

The most recent performance included 68 rushing yards. St. Brown now has nine carries including 129 rushing yards and a score; he can do that too. I’m more interested in Boobie Myles than his father so he can pass.

St. Brown is the WR1 every week because that’s literally half a season’s worth of games now. Matchups don’t matter when double-digit targets are on the table every week – but hey, St. Brown is set up pretty awesome against the Vikings’ bottom four defense. nest

In today’s NFL, a good offense trumps a good defense: Offenses set to thrive in their quest to create some explosive passing games: Buccaneers, Chargers, Bears, Titans and Lions.

Why doesn’t Elon Musk step in and prevent injuries from happening again? The Buccaneers and Chargers may have a tougher time using their extra matchups in the passing game due to some key injuries:

  • Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert: He suffered a torn rib cage during the Chargers’ thrilling Thursday night loss to the Chiefs. Hopefully, the extended rest gave him enough time to recover; he’ll need it after being hurt enough to give up the opportunity to climb alive due to pain. If he pans out, he’ll be a soon-to-be 36-year-old journeyman Follow Daniel will be below the center. Notably, Daniel has made five starts and eight touchdown passes since entering the league in 2010, but collected a cool $41.3 million over his career.
  • Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin (hamstring), Julio Jones (knee), Mike Evans (stop): Early reports had described Godwin’s injury as a multi-week ordeal, while Evans was undoubtedly sidelined as he began another fight. Marshawn Lattimore. hopefully Julio Jones will be a full-time starter with Fucks Tom Brady below the center, but that’s not a guarantee either. This can leave TB12 to throw away Breshad Perryman, Russell Gage, Scotty Miller and perhaps recently signed Cole Beasley. Gage should be picked at the top of the group, but if all of Brady’s top receivers end up on the sidelines, the first game plan would be pointless.

Attack is easier when defense fails: The only six defenses that allowed an explosive pass rush on at least 11% of opposing snaps: Packers (14), Giants (11.3), Texans (11.2), Cardinals (11), Bears ( 10.9%) and Bengalis (10.7%).

More parties in LA: Matthew Stafford Followed up a disappointing three-INT Week 1 performance against the Bills with 272 yards and three scores against the Falcons. An elbow injury doesn’t limit him The former Lions quarterback has the ability to make some truly wild throws. Through two weeks, the reigning Super Bowl champion is on pace for 36 touchdowns and 43 interceptions. Aren’t you having fun?

Here’s the Cardinals defense struggling to open the postseason:

  • Yards Per Attempt Allowed: 7.85 (No. 26)
  • Permissible explosive transfer rate: 20.7% (No. 32)
  • Allowed transition speed: 9% (No. 31)
  • QB rating allowed: 130 (No. 31)

Only Lions-Vikings (52.5) ​​and Bills-Dolphins (52) have a higher game total than Rams-Cardinals (50.5); Stafford and company are primed for a scrimmage against the top-scoring defense in football through two weeks of action. Giddyup.

Monday Night Shadow Match: Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb vs. Giants CB Adoree’ Jackson does One of the 11 shade matches I made for week 3. Credit to Jackson for the limitation Robbie Anderson (3-32-0) and Robert Woods (4-39-0) to start the season, but it would be a shock if Lamb doesn’t surpass his combined eight goals by himself. Cooper Rush narrowly missed Lamb on two deep hits in a combined 4.5 quarters this season. Think of Lamb as the NFC version Brandin Cooks to work Dak Prescott (thumb) is out; even if the efficiency isn’t pretty, it should have enough volume to sustain WR2 production for more than a week.

Let the teenager watch: Another projected Week 3 shadow matchup Bears WR Darnell Mooney vs. Texans CB Derek Stingley. Stingley flashed early with some great plays on the ball, but he wasn’t very effective. Courtland Sutton (7-122-0) in Week 2. Of course, the Broncos’ passing game is slightly (read: a lot) more formidable than the Bears right now. Don’t expect the No. 3 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft to make life easy for Mooney, but the bigger issue with Mooney falling down the ranks is the sheer volume available within the league’s top-heavy offense. Within two weeks Justin Fields You know, it’s 33rd in the NFL in pass attempts, even though there are 32 teams in this wonderful league.

Subscribe to PFF+ to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Enter

Leave a Comment