- The Vikings could have gone through the game flirt with the boom result Against the Dolphins’ waning and battered secondary.
- Baltimore Ravens RB JK Dobbins could produce higher productivity than usual Sunday against the Giants’ front seven.
- Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford such a large reversal may not be in place If there is a PFF 31st ranked offensive line The pass-blocking class continues against Brian Burns and the Panthers.
Estimated reading time: 25 minutes
The NFL is a league based on consistency. Offensive coordinators are always looking to get their playmakers one-on-one against the quarterback, while defensive coordinators will try their best to disrupt the opposing QB’s timing and rhythm.
Despite the obvious impact that defenses have on opposing offenses, fantasy players and fans alike often have one-sided metrics to describe offenses and defenses, and then are forced to compare them against each other to determine mismatches.
The goal here is to provide easy-to-decipher charts and notes to identify each week’s key matchups and advantages on both sides of the ball:
- Explosive games
- Yards before contact
The tables below show matchup-specific information to highlight the biggest mismatches in these ever-important aspects of football for effective betting and fantasy offers as a result. And of course to have fun.
Note: Data refers to weeks 1-5 of 2022. Due to the small sample size at hand, there are obviously many limitations to this; the main inconsistencies will be highlighted in the following paragraphs and the indicators will strengthen as the season progresses.
Big games make the football world go round. Matchups between explosive offenses and leaky defenses are exactly what we’re looking for when drafting our DFS stacks or betting already.
- Explosive transition rate: The sum of the offense’s completion rate of 20-plus yards per pass attempt and the opposing defense’s completion rate of 20-plus yards allowed per pass attempt. For crimes, a higher percentage is better (blue is good, red is bad).
- Explosive Run Rate: The sum of the offense’s rate of gaining 15-plus yards per rushing attempt and the opposing defense’s rushing rate of 15-plus yards allowed per rushing attempt. For crimes, a higher percentage is better (blue is good, red is bad).
These crimes lead to explosive games: Seven offenses average at least 10% of their explosive passes: Patriots (12), Lions (11.5), Packers (10.8), Broncos (10.7), 49ers (10.5), Falcons (10) . %) and Titans (10%).
Will Russ cook again? Russell Wilson He finished as a fantasy QB4 in Week 4, but had three finishes outside of the top 20 signal callers in the past four weeks. His 14.6 rushing yards per game is the second-lowest of his career, though that shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. History of quarterbacks running less as they get older.
The real problem was that Wilson’s oft-heralded accuracy was largely terrible to start the season. Overall, Russ threw for nine yards downfield (84.6% adjusted completion rate, 22nd among 40 qualified quarterbacks), 10-19 yards downfield (55.6%, No. 27) and 20 or more yards showed moderate effectiveness. the lower area (37.9%, #20) is the same.
One easy explanation: injury. Russ had an injection in his throwing shoulder last Friday to treat an injury similar to a dislocation Dak Prescott in training camp last season. Another could be the reality that the coaching staff and roster have only played five games together.
Another thing could be that Wilson, 34 in November, has been declining for several seasons and we all blamed the Seahawks roster instead of the man under center.
My guess is it’s a mix of all three, and we’ll have more to say about the overall dominance of this passing game after next Monday night’s matchup with the Chargers. It’s hard to wait for someone to step on it Derwin James and company; A big comeback performance in primetime would go a long way to assuage the concerns of Broncos country and fantasy managers alike.
In today’s NFL, a good offense trumps a good defense: Offenses set to thrive in their quest to create some explosive passing games: Patriots, Broncos, 49ers and Dolphins. Of course it is Skylar Thompson below center instead Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) or Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) not ideal for the last squad.
*finally* George Kittle eruption week?: It looks good. Kittle continues to lead the route at 80% northern well Jimmy Garoppolo‘s dropbacks despite common jokes about his new role as left tackle. If so, don’t be surprised finally Kittle’s explosive week: The Falcons posted sub-three marks in targets (45), receptions (34) and receiving yards (355) through five weeks at the position.
Dont sleep Jerry Jewdy: Jeudy ranks outside the top 40 receivers in fantasy through five weeks of action. To be fair, injuries limited him drastically in Weeks 2 and 3; the third-year talent has finished WR13, WR21 and WR51 in PPR in just three complete games this season.
The latter performance could have been greater. First, Russ almost had a pearly 15-yard touchdown to Jeudy. Problem: The receiver only got one hand on the ball that was well thrown in the back of the end zone (by not making a bad call), eliminating a potential 15-yard touchdown. Later, the Broncos fell short of a potential 27-yarder when Wilson overthrew a wide-open Jeudy. Finally, Jeudy he had an easy 30-40 yards at his disposal after opening up on a deep cross; too bad, the ball went long and gave the defender a chance to force an incompletion, which he did.
Jeudy (11-208-2) has been slightly more productive than Sutton (14-198-1) during his aforementioned three injury-free outings, despite seeing slightly fewer targets (19 vs. 24). Right now, I like the low price on Jeudy given his potential to close that perceived gap with Sutton rushing inside a Broncos passing attack that couldn’t get any worse in the public eye.
Attack is easier when defense fails: Only three defenses that allow an explosive passing game play at least 10% of their opponent’s snaps: the Texans (11.8%), Seahawks (11.5%) and Chiefs (10.4%).
Subscribe to PFF+ to continue reading
Already have a subscription? Enter