NFL Week 12 best bets: Spread, money line, total and teaser

Bettors are people too, and like most people, we like to play the guilty game. We will willfully ignore the miracle cover in New England’s miraculous comeback at the death (our handicap was good and the Patriots should have won by a touchdown anyway!). We’ll be upset that the Browns mega-backdoor pushed the Bills to -8 (reminding us to always shop), the Colts couldn’t close out our upset of the week, and a series of unfortunate events lifted the Chiefs and Chargers. Above 52.5 points. Humility is what keeps us sane.

As has been the case all season, the only superior numbers came in reference to our -8, but even though it was considered a comeback, we still managed to come out on top in that division from Week 11.

ATS trio 2-0-1 (+2) 17-12-4 (+3.8)
ML got angry -1 5-6 (+3.6)
Totals -1.1 3-8 (-5.8)
Teasers 1 5-6 (-2.2)
GENERAL +0.9 -0.6

Best bet ATS

Vikings -2.5

Always give me a professional team in their next game after being embarrassed. The Vikings get a chance to bounce back from Sunday’s fiasco with the Cowboys against a team that has won six games against five quarterbacks who are not expected to start the next game for their team and Jared Goff.

Mac Jones has been a disappointment this season. All in all, there’s little reason to believe the Patriots’ stagnant offense will find life four days after needing a punt return to score its only touchdown over the Jets — especially since we could get three points thanks to Kirk Cousins. fighting in night games.

Jets -5.5

Two alarm calling situations that passed overnight. Based on standard power ratings, this line should be around a field goal, but who knows where their rating would fall assuming the Bears bench Justin Fields? Meanwhile, the opposite is true if the Jets can even land a major-level pro quarterback. This line could go higher, so we’ll push it to -6 as much as we can.

Aries +16

No one has ever been lower than me on the Rams – I’ve blitzed them multiple times this season and they’ve never appeared in this space. Until now. We’re buying them hopefully at the lowest price, thinking Bryce Perkins’ legs are the element that extends the drive without Matthew Stafford’s expectations.

Perkins has 140 preseason pass attempts, but he also had 40 preseason rushing attempts, which shows Sean McVay has an idea of ​​how to use him in preparation. After a big win over the Chargers, the Chiefs have an AFC Championship Game rematch with the Bengals next week — setting up the dreaded sandwich spot — and they’ll settle for a 10-14 victory.

The money line of the week is concerned

Our default setting for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.

Jaguars +160

The Ravens’ red-zone touchdown rate fell to 20th in the league after converting less than 43% of their trips into TDs over a three-game stretch. Neither Lamar Jackson nor Mark Andrews are 100% healthy, and without top-level talent in the receiving corps and explosive tailbacks, Baltimore can be defensive.

The Jaguars are in a good position to play at the top of their lineup thanks to Trevor Lawrence’s weekly improvement under Doug Pederson. Prior to the bye week, the Jags’ red zone conversion percentage was up 60% over the past three games. With nearly equal yards per play figures, this matchup is closer to a toss than we think.

Best overall bet

Bengals / Titans Over 42 Points (-115)

The strongest aspect of the Titans’ defense is its performance against the run. Joe Mixon is potentially headed to the Bengals and Samaje Perine would replace his snaps – the latter being the better receiver of the two. Speaking of receivers, Cincinnati is hoping Ja’Marr Chase returns — so why didn’t the club let Joe Burrow go? Aaron Rodgers’ hand injury caused his inaccuracy in last week’s game against Tennessee and took some points off the scoreboard.

Meanwhile, the Titans’ offense is the healthiest it’s been this season, which should instill confidence in Ryan Tannehill, especially with the return of first-round pick Treylon Burks. A close game with at least a moderate amount of possessions should result in more points than the market expects.

Best 6 point teaser

Panthers +8.5 / Eagles -1

The Panthers defense is legit and could confound Russell Wilson. With Sam Darnold most recently starting under center, it’s hard to imagine Carolina being any less effective offensively than Baker Mayfield and PJ Walker — though the Panthers have often struggled and won numerous games outright.

The Packers have shown they can be competitive, but a road win over the Eagles is asking a lot. The point spread is rated at a fairly low -7, but Philadelphia has had a week to strengthen its defensive line rotation with its new additions, and on offense, it’s the best matchup for the running game in three weeks.

Matt Russell is a punter for TheScore. If there’s a bad shot, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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