NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: Projected Spreads & Predictions (2022)

Our model generates expert lines for every NFL game. We compare expert lines to current point spreads to determine potential value for each NFL game. The full NFL Betting Options: Projected Spreads Report can be found here. And here are some picks and notes for week 5.

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NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: Projected Spreads & Predictions (2022)

Giants vs. Packers

Team Open Consensus Experts Cover probability Expected Value
Giants +6.0 +8.0 +7.6 51% -2%
Packers -6.0 -8.0 -7.6 49% -7%

Lean Giants +8, over 40.5

The Giants are optimistic that Daniel Jones will play this week against the Packers. Their backup quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, missed practice with a concussion, which makes it all the more important for Jones to play. However, they will likely look to run the ball against the Packers, who have allowed 167 yards on the ground to the Patriots. Saquon Barkley should have a lot of success in football. He currently leads the NFL in rushing yards with 463, so another 100-yard game could be in his future.

Offensively for the Packers, they need to have success running the ball as well. The Giants have allowed 5.1 yards per rush attempt and Aaron Jones is averaging 6.8 yards per rush attempt so far this season. The Giants have yet to record an interception on defense, but are second in the league in red zone scoring percentage at 35.7%.


Cowboys vs. Rams

Team Open Consensus Experts Cover probability Expected Value
Cowboys +4.5 +5.5 +4.8 52% -1%
Rams -4.5 -5.5 -4.8 48% -9%

Lean Aries -5.5, down from 43.5

The Cooper Rush are now 4-0 as a starter and the Cowboys sit at 3-1 in the grueling NFC East division. On the other hand, the Rams are coming off a disappointing loss to a division rival on Monday night.

While the Rams offense looked soulless against the 49ers last week, let’s not forget how great the 49ers defense has been this year. Giving up less than 4 yards per game in 4 weeks is a historic feat. So let’s not jump into this crime just yet.

However, the Cowboys’ defense has been just as effective, giving up 4.6 yards per play, fourth in the league. Dallas also ranks second in the league with 15 sacks on the year.

Look for another low-scoring affair with two teams averaging 17 points per game.


Lions vs. Patriots

Team Open Consensus Experts Cover probability Expected Value
Lions +5.0 +3.0 +2.5 52% -2%
Patriots -5.0 -3.0 -2.5 48% -7%

Lean Lions +3, under 45.5

Detroit brings one of its strongest offensive attacks to this matchup with the Patriots. Regardless of who carried the ball, the Lions moved the ball very effectively on the ground. They will look to continue that trend against a run defense that ranks 31st in DVOA.

On the other hand, the Patriots have the same advantage with their doubleheader offense, working against a run defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA in Detroit. With both teams able to move the ball over each other on the floor, this game could be the first for the Lions if long, methodical drives develop.

The final score may come down to which guard plays when needed. With Mac Jones questionable, the Lions get the upper hand here. Despite injuries all over the roster, Goff has found ways to make plays and I expect that to continue on Sunday.


Bengals vs. Ravens

Team Open Consensus Experts Cover probability Expected Value
Bengalis +1.0 +3.5 +2.8 52% -3%
Crows -1.0 -3.5 -2.8 48% -6%

Lean Ravens -3 over 48.5

Cincinnati stunned the Ravens in 2021 and gained new momentum after starting the season 0-2. However, be careful not to interpret the Bengals’ streak as a sign that the team’s problems are resolved.

By contrast, Baltimore’s 2-2 is a different breed. The team has only trailed fourteen seconds this season and scored both 21 and 17 points in the second half. Frustrations abound with the Ravens, but this is undeniably a good football team.

It’s a tough handicap matchup, but I’ll back the better 2-2 team as the short home favorite. Lamar should continue to bolster his MVP case as Baltimore’s primetime rebounder.


What is a Spread Bet?

“Against the spread” betting refers to the act of picking a winning team based on a numerical handicap placed on the team that the oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking an outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals and the odds set the Rams at -3.5, Los Angeles needs to win by 4 or more points to cash your Rams bet.

What is an over/under bet?

Over/Under is a bet based on how many points you think will be scored in a particular game. Oddsmakers set the total and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than this number. If the Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you already place a bet, both teams must have a combined score of 45 or higher to win your bet.

What is Moneyline Bet?

Moneyline betting involves picking the team you believe will win a particular match. The money line favorite carries a negative sign of -130. This means that you have to bet $130 to get a profit of $100. Conversely, the underdog carries an additional designation such as +110. This means you will win $110 on a $100 bet.


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